A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
